Afghanistan Peace Process and Impact on India-Afghan Relations

US-AFGHAN RELATIONS

After the end of Afghan Civil War, in 1994 an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, a militant organization refers to itself as the Taliban, under the leadership of Mohammed Omar, emerged and operated in Afghanistan, talking advantage of the power vacuum left. Al-Qaeda, an international terrorist network, were granted sanctuary in Afghanistan on the condition that it did not antagonize the United States, but Osama bin Laden reneged on the agreement in 1998 when he orchestrated bombings of US embassies in East Africa. The Taliban was fundamentally provincial while Al-Qaeda had its sights set on global jihad.

After the 9/11, 2001 attacks, the U.S. requested Taliban to hand over Osama bin Laden, for which Taliban refused. Consequently, the U.S., together with its NATO allies, launched the United States invasion of Afghanistan, code-named Operation Enduring Freedom, on October 7, 2001. By December 17 that year, the U.S. and its allies had driven the Taliban from power and begun building military bases near major cities across the country. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was later created by the United Nations Security Council to train Afghan National Security Forces to oversee military operations in the country so as to prevent any resurgence of the Taliban group. The US directly involved in the war for 18 years. 

Karzai offered peace talks with the Taliban in September 2007, but this was rejected by the insurgent group citing the presence of foreign troops. A mindset change and strategy occurred within the Obama administration in 2010 to allow possible political negotiations to solve the war. The Taliban themselves had refused to speak to the Afghan government, portraying them as an American "puppet". 

In July 2015, Pakistan hosted the first official peace talks between Taliban representatives and the Afghan government. U.S and China attended the talks brokered by Pakistan in Murree as two observers. In January 2016, Pakistan hosted a round of four-way talks with Afghan, Chinese and American officials, but the Taliban did not attend. 

Following months of negotiations, the Hezb-i Islami Gulbuddin, the second largest domestic militant group after the Taliban, signed a peace agreement with the government of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul. It was the first peace treaty since the war in Afghanistan started in 2001. Government officials praised the deal as a step towards peace and potentially a deal with the Taliban too. The deal included the U.S. to whitelist him from a list of "global terrorists". 

On February 27, 2018, following an increase in violence, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani proposed unconditional peace talks with the Taliban, offering them recognition as a legal political party and the release of the Taliban prisoners. A growing peace movement arose in Afghanistan during 2018, particularly following a peace march which the Afghan media dubbed the "Helmand Peace Convoy". Ghani and the Taliban agreed a mutual ceasefire during the Eid al-Fitr celebrations in June 2018, which ended a week later. 

A further round of talks in Qatar were held in February 2019, Khalilzad reported that this round of negotiations was "more productive than they have been in the past" and that a draft version of a peace agreement had been agreed. The deal involved the withdrawal of US and international troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban not allowing other jihadist groups to operate within the country. The Taliban also announced that progress was being made in the negotiations. 

On February 29, 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar, officially titled the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan. The provisions of the deal include the withdrawal of all American and NATO troops from Afghanistan, a Taliban pledge to prevent al-Qaeda from operating in areas under Taliban control, and talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The United States agreed to an initial reduction of its force level from 13,000 to 8,600 by July 2020, followed by a full withdrawal within 14 months if the Taliban keeps its commitments. The United States also committed to closing five military bases within 135 days, and expressed its intent to end economic sanctions on the Taliban by August 27, 2020. 

The deal was supported by China, Russia and Pakistan, although it did not involve the government of Afghanistan. The resulting intra-Afghan negotiations were scheduled to begin on March 10, 2020 in Oslo, Norway. The deal requires the Afghan government to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners by the start of the talks, in a prisoner exchange for 1,000 government soldiers held by the Taliban. Despite the peace agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban, insurgent attacks against Afghan security forces were reported to have surged in the country. 

On May 17, 2020, Ghani signed a power-sharing deal with his rival Abdullah Abdullah. This deal ended the long-running dispute about the results of the 2019 Afghan presidential elections, and assigned responsibility for peace negotiations to Abdullah. 

On July 1, 2020, the U.S. House Armed Services Committee overwhelmingly voted in favor of a National Defence Authorization Act amendment to restrict President Trump's ability to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan. President Biden′s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said in January 2021 that the United States would review the peace agreement to withdraw its remaining 2,500 soldiers from Afghanistan by May 2021. 

By August 2020, the Afghan government had released 5,100 prisoners, and the Taliban had released 1,000. On March 6, 2021, Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani expressed that his government would be taking forward peace talks with the Taliban, discussing with the insurgent group about holding fresh elections and forming a government in a democratic manner. 

Recent Updates After US Elections 

The New administration in USA under Joe Biden is reviewing the US Foreign policy towards Afghanistan. US has called for a 90-day reduction in violence and a transitional government formed from both sides. This implies an immediate 50% share for the Taliban in an interim government, as a quid pro quo for a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire. This will be without reference to a mandate from the people as elections will be held only in the future, after the principles guiding Afghanistan’s future constitutional and governing arrangements are worked out. US is considering the full withdrawal of US forces by May 1 2021, the deadline that was set up under Trump administration. Proposed measures call for bringing the two sides together for a United Nations-facilitated conference with foreign ministers and envoys from Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the US, to discuss a “unified approach” to supporting peace in Afghanistan”. 

Issues with the Peace Deal 

In the peace deal US did not insist on a ceasefire and it kept the Afghanistan government out of the peace process. Due to this Afghanistan has witnessed continuous violence led by the Taliban. The recently held presidential elections witnessed a very low voter turnout. The main opposition candidate Abdullah Abdullah did not recognise the elected government. He backed off, but only after being appointed the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation that will lead talks with the Taliban, which has an upper hand in the prevailing situation in Afghanistan. 

UN Secretariat – 6+2+1 meeting 

UN Secretariat held a “6+2+1” meeting on regional efforts to support peace in Afghanistan. 6 neighbours of Afghanistan (China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), 2 global players (the USA and Russia) and 1 (Afghanistan) attended the meeting. India was not invited to this meeting. 

Why India was not invited in the meeting? 

It was sighted that India shares no physical boundary with Afghanistan. India never announced its support to the US Taliban peace process. India’s resistance to publicly talking to Taliban has also contributed to absence of invitation. 

India’s concerns about the Peace deal 

India has thus far not recognized the Taliban, which has had links with terror groups like the Lashkar – e – Toiba and Jaish – e – Mohammad, who have targeted Indians in Afghanistan. India was also not invited to a UN-led regional conference on the peace process. India wants the democratically elected government of Ashraf Ghani government to continue in office as it is more friendly towards India. 

Taliban as an organization gets a lot of support from Pakistan and ISI and hence, Taliban, victory in the peace deal would be a blow to India’s effort to reach to Central Asia and positively engage Afghan government. If Taliban comes to power then there is a high chance that China will get free access to Afghanistan and this will be another blow to India’s strategic interests. India’s effort to fight terrorism in Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir may also suffer a blow. 

India’s stand on Afghan peace process 

The peace process has to be “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled”. Afghanistan should build national consensus for talks with the Taliban. India was among the countries that had refused to recognise the Taliban regime of 1996-2001, as Taliban’s growth in Afghanistan was being driven by deep state in Pakistan. All initiatives and processes must include all sections of the Afghan society, including the legitimately elected government. Any process should respect the constitutional legacy and political mandate. Establishment of democratic process with respect for human rights, including women’s rights. The peace process should not leave any ungoverned spaces where terrorists and their proxies can relocate. 

Importance of Afghanistan to India? 

Regional Balance of Power: Afghanistan is tied to India’s vision of being a regional leader and a great power, coupled with its competition with China over resources and its need to counter Pakistani influence. 

Energy Security: The pipeline project TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India), which seeks to connect an energy-rich Central to South Asia, will only see the light of the day if stability is established in Afghanistan 

Strategic Location: For access to the landlocked Central Asian countries that border Afghanistan. 

Natural Resources: The country is home to resource deposits worth one trillion dollars, according to the US Geological Survey. 

Regional Security: A stable Afghanistan is important for regional security in South Asia.