INDIA WILL BECOME MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY IN 2023

 

According to the 2022 edition of the United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP), India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. It also projected the world’s population to reach 8 billion on November 2022.

What is the World Population Prospects?

The Population Division of the UN publish the WPP biennially since 1951, which provides a historical time series of population indicators starting in 1950. It does so by taking into account newly released national data to revise estimates of past trends in fertility, mortality or international migration.

main takeaways for the global population

The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowingdown: The global population is expected to grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. In 2020, the global growth rate fell under 1% per year for the first time since 1950.

    Rates of population growth vary significantly across countries and regions: More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

ü Disparate growth rates among the world’s largest countries will re-order their ranking by size. The 46 LDCs are among the world’s fastest-growing and are projected to double between 2022 and 2050, putting additional pressure on resources and posing challenges to the achievement of the UN’s SDGs.

  The population of older persons is increasing both in numbers and as a share of the total: Share of the global population aged 65 years or above is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.

ü Countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programmes to the growing proportion of older persons, by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems and by establishing universal health care and long-term care systems.

 Sustained drop in fertility has led to an increased concentration of population at working ages, creating an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita: Shift in the age distribution provides a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth known as the “demographic dividend”.

ü “To maximize the potential benefits of a favourable age distribution, countries need to invest in the further development of their human capital by ensuring access to health care and quality education at all ages and by promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work,”.

    International migration is having important impacts on population trends for some countries: For high-income countries between 2000 and 2020, the contribution of international migration to population growth exceeded the balance of births over deaths. Over the next few decades, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries. In India, the outflow is due to temporary labour movements (-3.5 million). In other countries, insecurity and conflict drove the outflow of migrants.

How reliable is the UN projection, and how do they compare with India’s Census?

UN’s WPP has a long history and several countries use these projections. “It is an authentic source and there is no doubt about its credibility,”.

In India, of course, the Registrar General comes out with a population projection based on the Census. The last such projection was released in 2019 and it was based on Census 2011. “The Census projection is slightly lower than the UN projection,”.  If not in 2023 then another few years India would overtake China as the world’s most populous country.

WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INDIA OVERTAKING CHINA?

India would overtake China has been known for a while. “The concern now is, the quality of life for the people alive, Since India’s population is already 1.4 billion and may go up to 1.6 billion before declining,”. “The focus now has shifted to reducing poverty, provide healthcare facilities, education etc.,”.

Looking at the India data, it is clear, cohorts of 0-14 years and 15-24 years will continue to decline while those of 25-64 and 65+ will continue to rise for the coming decades.

WHAT ARE THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS ARISING OUT OF THESE TWO TRENDS?

For those already in the 25-64 age bracket, there is need for skilling. “Educational attainment of those already in this bracket is lower than what today’s generation. Skilling is the only way to ensure they are more productive and have better incomes, which will be a major policy challenge”.

The 65+ category is going to grow quite fast. Provisioning of social security is obviously a big challenge, which will stretch the resources of the future governments. “If we go back to our roots and stick around as families, as against the western tendency to go for individualism, then the challenges would be less,”.